The Weathering Weather Wrecks Everything

This Is an IQ Test

Our Anglo-Saxon linguistic forbears left us with a word, weather. It is a noun. Curiously, by the 18th Century, weather came to have a different sense, in the form of a verb (and an adjective) that connects the observed effects of the elements (weather) with the effects of the weather over time. Today, the verb weather means “wear away by exposure” to the elements.

The linguistic progression of the word makes sense. Our shared human experience is that the combination of the “elements” is highly destructive to any objects—whether human-made (like roofing shingles) or natural (like a mountain).

Tiempo, Tempests, and the Arrow of Time

Romance languages have a curious etymological feature that just now came into focus for me. When I learned French in high school, I found it fascinating that le temps refers to both time and weather. I found that to be a strange linkage and wondered how the same word came to have two rather different meanings at the same temps. I assumed it was random because I saw no correlation between temps time and temps weather.

Later, I had an opportunity to spend a few years in South America. And I got rather fluent in a rather distinctive form of Spanish called Castellano. I was a bit perplexed to learn that in Spanish, tiempo also means both time and weather. And it always seemed that tiempo and tempest were cousins. But I never explored the Latin connection till now. Much as in English, weather started with one meaning (the weather outside) and later came to mean weathering away, Latin tempestas originally meant time and later came to have the meaning weather as in the elements. Humans have been associating the concept of time and the effects of the chaotic elements weathering things since the beginning of language development.

Tempestas, temps, tiempo, weather, weathering all describe the Second Law of Thermodynamics, the Arrow in time, in action.

Entropy is constantly returning what we organize to be useful, to be less and less so, then useless. At this point, waste to be discarded.

Thomas Christoffel

Basic science teaches us that weathering is one of the most powerful forces of nature. Rocks and stones are especially susceptible to the effects of weathering, resulting in most of the natural world we see. For instance, the Appalachian Mountains in the eastern United States were once as large as the Rocky Mountains, and the Rocky Mountains used to be about twice the size they are today.

Immediately after the Laramide orogeny, the Rockies were like Tibet: a high plateau, probably 6,000 meters (20,000 ft) above sea level. In the last 60 million years, erosion stripped away the high rocks, revealing the ancestral rocks beneath, and forming the current landscape of the Rockies.

Rocks and stones are especially susceptible to the effects of weathering, resulting in most of the natural world we see. Silica sand originated from the weathering of extrusive volcanic rock.

Weathering—the verb—is entropy in action. Water. Freeze. Thaw. Erosion. Wind. Oxidation from solar radiation.

Mechanical and Chemical Weathering

Sometimes called mechanical weathering, physical weathering is the process that breaks rocks apart without changing their chemical composition. These examples illustrate physical weathering: Swiftly moving water. Rapidly moving water can lift, for short periods of time, rocks from the stream bottom.

American Geosciences

“Chemical Weathering Chemical weathering changes the molecular structure of rocks and soil. For instance, carbon dioxide from the air or soil sometimes combines with water in a process called carbonation. This produces a weak acid, called carbonic acid, that can dissolve rock.” National Geographic

Wind - Solar Weathering and Erosion

Because they are designed to harvest weather energy diffused over enormous surface area, wind & solar generators are far more exposed to the negative effects of weathering than other kinds of engines.

For instance, as wind turbine blades slice through the air at high speeds, snow, hail, rain—even fine particulates in the air (dirt and dust)—smash into the blade surface. The longer the blade, the faster the speeds, the greater the impacts. Over time, these collisions waken and erode the outer layers, slowly eating deeper and deeper. Roughening the surface reduces the blade’s aerodynamic efficiency and production and is of particular concern for offshore applications.

SOURCE. In colder climes with more winds, the odds of such exposed machines to feel the effects of hail and similar damage goes up. Such damage will result in an increase in drag and decrease in lift production due to degradation of aerofoil characteristics, leading to:

Increased roughness, decreasing energy production

Unbalanced Rotor – Waterlogged Blades – Vibrations

Maintenance Concerns – Blade Repair – Full Replacement – Associated downtime – Offshore access

PV solar panels are based on highly-sophisticated nanotechnology and materials science.

It should come as no surprise that solar cells are failing for a variery of reasons, such as:

Micro-fractures

Snail trails

Hot Spots

Broken glass

PID degredation

Poor connection strings

In fact, micro-cracks, from freeze-thaw cycles, are perhaps the most daunting material defect problem facing the PV solar industry worldwide.

Micro-fractures, also known as micro-cracks, represent a form of solar cell degradation. The silicon used in the solar cells is very thin, and expands and contracts as a result of thermal cycling. During the day, the solar panels expand because of higher temperatures.

Micro-cracks cannot be repaired. The panel is junk.

Solar cells, glass, EVA and backsheet are heated and fused into a waterproof laminate during manufacturing, and they cannot be separated without causing severe damage to the solar cells.

So when cell cracks start to appear inside a panel, there is no easy way to replace the broken cells without destroying the solar panel.

This is an IQ Test

Hard to imagine but against all odds, weather-weathering-tiempo-temps-tempests are catching up with Rube Goldberg Element-Harvesting Machines—and faster than anybody predicted (especially the people left holding the bag).

According to a LinkedIn article published by Michael Cosgrave, CIC, CRM, CLTC, Chief Risk Officer:

In 2017, Hurricane Maria destroyed all of the recently added solar panels on a solar farm in Puerto Rico, which produced 40% of the island's solar-produced electricity, according to a 2021 report from GCube, one of the largest underwriters of renewable energy.

In 2019, a hailstorm damaged 400,000 panels of a Texas solar farm and resulted in $70 million to $80 million in losses, GCube's report said.

Tornadoes have damaged rows of solar panels in New Jersey, Minnesota and Virginia. Wildfires have affected wind turbines in California.

“We're seeing weather events in parts of North America where we shouldn't be seeing those weather events,” said Fraser McLachlan, chief executive officer of GCube. The industry has seen tornadoes in California, hail in parts of the United States that traditionally don't suffer from hail, and flooding in places where it shouldn't flood, according to analytics.

Continuing:

Willis Towers Watson's 2021 Renewable Energy Market Review reported losses in 2020 ranged from more-frequent $1 million to $5 million events to one that could reach $30 million. Hail, wildfire, construction issues and problems with wind turbine generators contributed to recent losses.

Hail is particularly damaging to solar farms. When hail hits a solar panel, the damage isn't always seen instantly, said Michael Cosgrave, principal, Renewable Guard Insurance Brokers, which specializes in property insurance for renewable energy. Microcracks can occur, and they can propagate throughout the panel over a period of time.

In addition, a solar module expands and contracts as it heats and cools, which can cause microcracks to become larger. Over time, the panel degrades and doesn't produce electricity at an optimized level, he said.

Things are not looking good for the industry.

According to Norton Rose Fulbright, Project Finance Newswire, insurance premiums for the solar power industry are skyrocketing and terms are deteriorating.

Higher deductibles – deductibles have shifted to much higher dollar amounts, and are now typically 5% of the total asset value for catastrophic perils. Historically, deductibles were capped at either $10,000 or 2% of the total asset value, with 5% considered as an extreme.

Some insurers have introduced natural catastrophe sublimits. These are extra limitations in an insurance policy’s coverage for certain losses, such as severe convective storms, hail, tornados and straight-line wind.These sublimits set a maximum to cover a specific loss.

Most insurers have introduced specifically nuanced policy restrictions, like microcracking exclusions. This means that any cost for microcrack testing falls on the insured, who must demonstrate that more than a certain percentage or number of individual solar modules suffered damage before the policy will respond.

The market is seeing inconsistency among insurers regarding policy terms, including terms associated with microcracking, sublimits, contingent coverages and deductibles.

Imagine yourself Rube Goldberg creating the most absurd way to obtain energy. Rube was a satirist. His machines are satire of really dumb ideas. I think I might chose a machine that collected energy from the elements.  

Credit: Studio C