Meet Entropy

Meet Entropy. It's the Nemesis of Civilization. It’s the Nemesis of Life. Of everything. Death as we know it occurs the moment any living organism can no longer withstand the forces of Entropy. We are all slowly turning into dust bunnies, blowing in the wind and being shredded by solar radiation.

A good way to think of the Second Law of Thermodynamics is to pick up a dust bunny in your house and think about what it is and how it came to be. Little bits of everything around you just broke off and got all jumbled up. A bit of carpet fiber; cotton fuzz; hair; pet hair; particles of clothing, tissue, food; and a collection of dust particles that you see floating around when the sun hits the room just so.

Entropy is constantly returning what we organize to be useful, to be less and less so, then useless. At this point, waste to be discarded.

Thomas Christoffel

One simple statement of the second law of thermodynamics is that heat always moves from hotter objects to colder objects (or “downhill”), unless energy is supplied to reverse the direction of heat flow. Another definition is: “Not all heat energy can be converted into work in a cyclic process.”

It's absurd to think that we can or should try to mine and build finite machines to “harvest” high-entropy energy in order to—fight entropy. The static electricity in dryer lint does not provide enough energy to recycle the dryer lint. Behold high-entropy energy compared to stable Nuclear Power. The Chinese word (non-ironic noun) for the red energy? Garbage Power. Is more red better? We are simply trading rare and high-value resources, like diesel fuel, tires, steel, tungsten, and such for very low-quality, low-value electrical energy.

Here is the same chart with more accurate scaling. According to Edgardo: “The reduced intermittency comparibility of same-scaling really gets lost for solar in Ontario because of the order of magnitude size differences. The seasonal and day-to-night intermittency for solar is evident in left (scaled to show two maxima), but lost in right!”

Identify a single physical object that humans have created using solely the energy “harvested” by windmills and solar panels (red). Yet look around you and behold Civilization created and maintained first by human labor, then assisted by animals, then by steam power, and finally built by the heavy distillate fraction of crude oil burning in Rudolph Diesel’s nearly, thermodynamically-speaking, perfect engine.

Wind-Solar-Batteries, I’ve got bad news for you:

Simple as 1, 2, 3

1. We can't mine and build our way out of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

2. We are destroying Mother Earth trying to do so. 

3. The best way we humans can delay the rate that Entropy will ultimately destroy everything is Nuclear Power.

The “Electrify Everything” policy hits hard limits at scale because of all the materials required to do so. Stop doing it unless it really makes sense on a net-net basis.

Nuclear Power thermal energy (1,000+ C) needs to be the ultimate energy source for all the fuels we need (e.g. synfuels, chemicals, and anything else we can make with process heat). For instance, making H2 + O2 with nuclear power is low-cost. When we burn H2 + O2 onsite, we generate clean 3000 C. If we just use the H2, such as in the direct reduction of iron ore, we can use the O2 to improve every combustion process we have. Oxyfuels are significantly more efficient. That means less carbon without abandoning fossil fuels where that makes sense. O2 is easy to store and ship while H2 is not. We are thinking about the wrong gas.

Scientists know a great deal about limiting factors on small scales. Been dealing with this topic my whole career. I am puzzled why scientists haven't deduced that Civilization has two simple limiting factors.

1. Metals and other materials that are mined and grown.

2. Diesel Fuel to do do the work of #1.

Diesel Fuel is a limiting factor today because of where we source it. Heavy distillates are only a small fraction of Crude Oil just as cream is a small fraction of raw milk.

I have not yet written about the turbojet engine but it is nearly as important to Civilization as Rudolph Diesel's engine.

All mining, farming, construction, aviation - Work - of Civilization is competing for their share of a tiny fraction of Crude Oil. This is a limiting factor for growth. Costly diesel / jet fuel means no real growth.

My response to the lectures about the heaps of Minerals Civilization will require for the "energy transition" is that they don't see the literal oceans of Crude Oil it will take to mine and produce all the Stuff. Yet Diesel Fuel is a limiting factor today because of where we get it.

Some Simple Advice

1. Expand Nuclear Power as quickly as possible, especially direct thermal applications because we get “paid” twice: (i) High process heat for stuff we need (e.g. synfuels, chemicals, and so much more); and (ii) Steam for lots of electrical energy (Co-Generation). When we only make electrical energy with nuclear power, we have 60% waste heat. Co-Generation turns that problem on its head. It’s hard to overstate how much this true energy transition will save. I liken it to the dual combined cycle natural gas generation process. Process heat for things we need (cycle one) and heat for steam generation (cycle two).

2. Until Civilization can affordably make Diesel Fuel from feedstocks other than Crude Oil, there is tremendous value in conserving Diesel Fuel. For every barrel of Diesel Fuel not wasted, we won't waste several barrels of Crude Oil (and the heat) needed to make it. These are the energy savings that will matter most until we can get much more Nuclear Power deployed. Who likes food?

Advice 1 & 2 are the only way we can possibly even come close to achieving the aspirational goals of "sustainability" and such. The Second Law is just too powerful.

Ever Gone Fishing for Red Herrings?

"Climate Change" "Net Zero" "ESG" "Carbon Emissions" "Renewable Energy" "Green Energy" "Clean Energy" "Just Stop Oil" "Energiewende" "Extreme Weather" "Low-Carbon Energy Systems" "Taxonomy" "NRDC" "Atomkraft? Nein, Danke!" “Right” “Left” “Liberal” “Conservative”

Closing Argument

Build as much Nuclear Power as possible. Civilization will thrive. Mother Earth will be less burdened. We are taxing her too much for no good reason. Uranium-235 is her gift to us. We’ve been given to know how to use it safely. To be sure, there are impacts just as with any technology, such as with the development of the Steam Engine. How many thousands of innocent humans died or were impacted by coal mining, iron mining, steel foundries, and so forth because of engineering mistakes, poorly-developed materials science and manufacturing techniques, safety and pollution control measures. Still, humans worldwide assumed those risks and made improvements because the technology was so transformational.

Nuclear Power is without compare:

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